Child Mortality Forecasts to 2030

Risks & contraindications

Comparisons

Evidence quality

Highlighted claims

• Afghanistan is projected to have the highest under-5 mortality rate through 2030, followed by Bangladesh and Myanmar. — Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling of neonatal, infant and under-5 mortality (2000–2022) in 41 Asian countries: a population-level observational study
• Forecasted under-5 mortality hotspot values include 77.12 per 1000 live births in Afghanistan, 63.16 in Myanmar and 57.12 in Bangladesh. — Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling of neonatal, infant and under-5 mortality (2000–2022) in 41 Asian countries: a population-level observational study
• Neonatal mortality forecasts were flatter than under-5 forecasts, with peak values of 6.30 in Bangladesh, 5.08 in Indonesia and 5.00 in Azerbaijan. — Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling of neonatal, infant and under-5 mortality (2000–2022) in 41 Asian countries: a population-level observational study
• Most projections had narrow credible intervals, supporting the model's reliability for broad country-level forecasting despite some anomalies. — Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling of neonatal, infant and under-5 mortality (2000–2022) in 41 Asian countries: a population-level observational study
• Some forecasts produced near-zero or negative estimates for countries such as Yemen and the UAE, which may reflect model sensitivity to spatial priors or sparse data. — Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling of neonatal, infant and under-5 mortality (2000–2022) in 41 Asian countries: a population-level observational study